Code

ΜΔΑ-287

Semester

2nd

ECTS

7,5

E-Services

Category

Obligatory

Objective

The aim of the course is to introduce students to the basic techniques of data analysis and extracting information from large data sets in order to make predictions about future events. Through this course, students are expected to acquire important technical skills regarding the creation of forecasting models and the application of forecasting techniques.

After successfully completing the course, students will be able to:

  • analyze data with appropriate predictive analytics techniques
  • choose the appropriate predictive method for data analysis and interpret the results
  • implement predictive techniques for real problems and by processing real data
  • evaluate the results of predictive methods

Learning outcomes

  • Search for, analysis and synthesis of data and information, with the use of the necessary technology
  • Adapting to new situations
  • Decision-making
  • Working independently
  • Production of new research ideas
  • Project planning and management
  • Criticism and self-criticism

Syllabus

  • Introduction

    Course Introduction-Matrix Concepts, Model Method and Function Selection, Data Preprocessing and Multidimensional Data Processing (Introduction to Data Transformations, Introduction to Time Series Analysis, Transformation of non-stationary to stationary time series, testing for independence.

  • Regression

    Linear-multiple linear regression, logistic regression, inverse normal regression (Probit regression), Crest Regression, Static/Dynamic Autoregression and Spectral Analysis. Spectral regression, multivariate analysis of variance (ANOVA-MANOVA). Exploratory factor analysis. Database mining and advanced prediction techniques. Experimental design. (Experimental design). Regression-based prediction modeling (forecast prediction, cancer prediction).

  • Regression Applications in Matlab

    Linear Regression, Logistic Regression, Ridge regression, Supervised Workflow and Algorithms, Supportive Support Machines, Supervised Learning, Unsupervised Learning, Applications.

  • Thoughtful process

    Linear Stochastic Processes, (Moving Average (MA) Processes), Interrelationship of AR and MA Processes, Auto-Switching Average Models (ARMA) (p, q) – Skill Estimation in ARMA (p, q), Box-Jenkins Approximation, ARIMA Models – ARIMA Model Estimation, ARIMA Models, ARIMA Model Forecasting – Diagnostic and Forecasting Model, Static Processes in the Frequency Domain, Spectral Analysis, Non Stationary Time Series, State Space Models-Kalman Filter, Relaxed Dynamic Models, Moving Medium (MA) Models, Vector autoreversion model, Multivariate models, SARMA models for stationary time series and ARIMA, SARIMA for non-stationary.

  • Nonlinear predictive models

    Time Series Forecasting with Linear and Nonlinear Models, Nonlinearity Overview, Interaction Models, Polynomial Models, Step Models, Piecewise Models, (Linear and Polynomial), Spline Models (MARS), Nonlinear Time Series Analysis and Dynamical Systems, Forecasting with Local Models.

  • Applications of Time Series Analysis (Matlab)

    Practice using Matlab in time series analysis, Using Matlab functions for AR, MA, ARMA, SARMA models, Time Series Programming, Linear Time Series analysis, Non-linear Time Series analysis and applications.

  • Regression Applications in R language

    The R language environment, Syntax, Libraries, Basic Structures and Functions, Linear Regression, Logistic Regression, Linear Time Series Analysis, Using functions for AR, MA, ARMA, SARIMA models.

  • Applications of Time Series Analysis in R language

    Programming for Time Series in R, Experimentation, Functions and programs in the R computing environment, Non-linear analysis of time series, Using Measures of Analysis of Time Series (MATS), Forecasting Applications.

  • Neural networks

    Introduction to neural networks. Activation function. The gradient-descent method. Model representation. Back-propagation algorithm.

  • Applications of neural networks

    Implementation of the backpropagation algorithm for neural networks in MATLAB. Examples of applying neural networks to forecasting problems.

  • Evaluating learning/prediction models

    Model selection and evaluation. Diagnostic vs. Deviation. Validity assessment. Metrics for evaluating prediction results. Learning curves.

Bibliography